WE’VE ALL SEEN MOVIES WITH ALIENS of all kinds. They cover the spectrum from benign to vicious
killers. From incredibly intelligent to mindless brutes. However they have been portrayed, they have been the product of human
imagination with all its limitations and the ever present anthropomorphic input. What will real aliens from far off worlds be
like? How will they think? Most importantly, what…will they want? We can hope that all they want is to invite us to join the
Galactic Federation and their arrival is like an interstellar welcome wagon replete with cleaning products from far flung exotic spots in the growing Federation.
I was recently
accosted by a slavering
individual flailing the Fermi Paradox and
grumbling, “Oh yeah, smart ass, if aliens exist, where the
hell are
they?” The reason for this attack was that I had posted an
article
about NASA’s progress on their Alcubierre
warp
drive device for interstellar travel on a popular social
media
site. I had the unmitigated gall to suggest that we might one day
venture forth and shake an alien tentacle—or whatever, and he
was
having none of that. According to his reckoning, if warp drive were
even slightly possible, certainly the aliens would have figured that
out long before we could. In his view, aliens must predate us by
thousands, if not gazillions of years. Everybody, he averred, knows
this to be true and immutable. With that logic, he knew that we
should be hosting state dinners for various alien visitors every week
or so and…well, we’re not, so it’s
obvious it doesn’t work. Fermi was right. He was sure of
that. There are no aliens. We are
all there is. End of conversation. I will give him credit for one
thing; he was at least not one of those UFO nuts telling me that the
lizards are walking
among us in human guise
and controlling the Illuminati. So, in spite of his skepticism, he
was at least tolerable.
Forced into a corner
by this minute
minded maniac, I had but one option; whip out one of those famous
Jacobs logical arguments to destroy his assault and reduce him to
quivering biological muck. I had to think fast because I
didn’t
have one available right off the top. This was a potentially
embarrassing situation. To say he had taken exception to my
presentation is being polite—too polite, and if I
didn’t come up
with something quick, he would be at the advantage. Anyway, as
thoughts began percolating to the surface and organizing themselves
into useful order, I crouched into my well trained ninja Science
Fiction writer’s attack stance and prepared myself for bloody
conflict.
“Friend,”
said I, “it is first
important that you understand Fermi never said that there are no
aliens, nor is he the source of that paper you’re waving in
my
face. You can thank Michael Hart
for that. Now, let us approach this in a more civilized manner,
okay?”
He grunted something
that sounded like
agreement, so I began.
“We can
agree that our local
neighborhood is rather large, right?”
“Yeah,
so?”
“So, in
1898, Marconi sent the first
radio signal over a distance of 18 miles. That was when Earth first
became radio-active. It was a feeble signal that probably
couldn’t
have been detected by a super sensitive receiver on the lunar
surface, let alone outside our solar system. Another 40 years would
have to pass before we would be spewing out radio waves that could be
conceivably detected over distances of light years.” From the
look
on his face, it was obvious I hadn’t made much of an
impression. Yet. I was just getting warmed up.
“What’s
that got to do with
nonexistent aliens?” he countered.
“A
lot,” I said. “Now, remember
that I said our neck of the woods is a pretty big place. That means
that there are a lot of stars, many of them with planets, and some of
those planets are within the habitable zones of their stars. You
with me so far?”
“Of course
I am. I’m no idiot, ya
know.”
“Right,”
I said, “you’re no
idiot. Anyway, we have to make some assumptions in order to discuss
this. Is that all right with you?”
“Assumptions?
I thought you knew
something about this. Why assumptions?”
“Look,
we’re talking about things
that have no precedent here. We have to make some assumptions. Hell,
Fermi had to make some assumptions to propose his paradox, and
that was aimed at refuting Drake’s
equation
for which Drake had made a number of assumptions as well. In spite
of the assumptions regarding Drake’s equation, it is a viable
posit, unlike the Fermi thing. It’s obvious to me that those
Hart
assumptions were okay with you, so why not mine? Shall I
continue?”
“Yeah yeah,
assume away, but hurry
up, I got stuff to do.”
“I’m
sure you do. All right, now,
our first assumption is that there is an alien intelligence in our
neighborhood, and they have existed long enough without killing
themselves off to have arrived at the coveted Type
I
civilization. Something, I should add, that we may not
manage
to do if we keep on with our tribal, superstitious nonsense and
don’t
come to realize we are all glued to a fragile space ship careening
through space. Dangerous space.
“Having
said that, the next
assumption is that this intelligent life has been fortunate enough to
evolve into a species capable of manipulating their environment and
is something like us. Oh, not human, but their world has provided
similar conditions to those of Earth that allowed a similar biology
to flourish. That means their world and their sun should be a close
analog. The most recent discovery of a reasonable match is Kepler
452b that is roughly 1400 light years away.”
My guest fidgeted
uncomfortably. “Aw,
man, why so far away?”
“Because
that’s what we’ve found
that fits the bill — at least so far. Remember, anything with
greater gravity is going to make it more difficult to get into space,
but the range of error says it could be as low as a couple of points
greater all the way up to double that of Earth. For our
hypothetical, we are going to assume the lower end of the range so
our critters can get off the ground. So far, most of what
we’ve
found that might harbor life are large, massive planets. Kepler 452b
is larger than Earth and its mass may be as much as five times
greater, meaning its gravity may be twice that of Earth. Still
workable at that gravity, but barely. At this stage, Kepler 452b is
the best we have. Okay?”
“I guess.
Still doesn’t prove
there’s aliens out there. Go on.”
“No one can
prove there is alien
intelligence out there without evidence, just as no one can prove
there is not. I’m just making a case for the possibility
against
Fermi’s assumption to the contrary. That all right with
you?”
“I
suppose.”
“Okay. It
is thought that Kepler
452b may have been in existence 1.5 billion years longer than Earth.
That means that there is a potential that any life there has had that
much longer to evolve. We have to now assume they have had enough
time to become space faring. Let’s say that these folks have
already inhabited all the inhabitable and marginally inhabitable
places available in their system and that they are looking around
their neighborhood for other possible locations where life might
exist. This is something of a stretch because it is an
anthropomorphic point of view, which could easily be way off base. This
is what the old Fermi paradox thing did, but being aliens, who
knows how and what they think; what their motivations are? It is
conceivable that they have no interest in anything outside their
system or even their own planet. However, for this discussion,
we’ll
go ahead and make this assumption. They are explorer types. Alien
Magellans. That it is reasonable to expect the Pinta, the
Niña, and
the Santa Maria to loom on the horizon at any moment.
“We’ll
also assume they have had
their own counterpart to Alcubierre and have perfected a warp
drive—meaning they are well on their way to being a Type II
civilization. Their searches of the heavens have revealed several
possible targets for investigation and we will assume that Sol/Earth
happens to be among them, but it’s not the closest. Because
of
that, the only thing that would draw their attention to our planet
would be signals. Signs of intelligence. So, what that means is
that they would perk up their ears, or whatever it is they use for
their auditory senses, in about 1300+ years when the Bob
Hope Christmas Show with Dagwood and Blondie tickled their
antennas. That is to say, they won’t be hearing from us for a
goodly long time.
“So, that’s where Hart’s and your
aliens are. Out there in the big old dark, totally ignorant of our
presence. If they are looking at us, they are seeing us as we were
1400 years prior to our conversation, about the time the 1st one-way
streets opened in London. Even if they had instruments capable of
analyzing our atmosphere, they would find signs of life, but nothing
that would indicate technology. It is an immense volume to explore
and only by great flights of fancy could one say realistically that,
if there were aliens out there, they would already have been here. On
top of that, someone may have already stopped by millions of years
ago and found nothing of particular interest or that our atmosphere
was not suitable for them and moved on to more interesting places. Who
knows?”
“Are you telling me we’ll never see
any aliens? That you’re going to agree with me? Like
everything’s
too far away? That what you’re saying?”
“No. I’m saying that there will
have to be some powerful reason for them to attempt traveling farther
than a few light years from home or, having accomplished a working
warp drive, they will begin with their nearest promising neighbors. If
we’re lucky, that may be us, just as we have determined they
are
the closest near analog for us. Now, as for alien life, I have
little doubt we may find that right here in our own system someday
soon. Oh, not the kind of life you’re thinking about, but
life. That would be sufficient to give us great hope for finding it
elsewhere in the galaxy and the impetus to set about looking for it
in earnest. I suspect, if we encounter anything of alien origin, it
will be in the form of probes. Machines. Maybe like Von Neumann
self replicating probes. They could even be ... seeding machines.
Now
there’s a pleasant thought to go to sleep with.